Obama and Ahmadinejad's Re-Election Candidature
Improving US-Iran Relations Before Presidential Elections in Iran
Feb 6, 2009 Vincent Gagnon-Lefebvre
Maybe more than at any time in the Islamic Republic's past, the state of US-Iranian relations will be a major issue in the upcoming elections in Iran next June. The results of those elections will further influence how relations between the two countries will evolve.
The Importance of Swiftly Engaging Iran
If Obama moves swiftly to improve relations and that he shows that is he willing to listen to Iran – just like he promised to listen to the Arab World in his Al Arabiya interview – it could give reformists a far better chance in the outcome of the elections. If he drags his feet or continues in the same path than his predecessor, it will better the odds of a religious conservative hardliner – very possibly more intransigent than current president Ahmadinejad – of becoming Iran's next president.
Therefore, the biggest mistake Obama could make would be to wait and refrain from taking the initiative toward Iran until the elections. The reformists may have a chance of taking back the presidency this time since both former reformist president Mohammad Khatami and former moderate conservative president Hashemi Rafsanjani have agreed to back the same candidate. With symbolic gestures of openness, without giving any impression of internal meddling, Obama could help bring to power a new dialog partner.
Ahmadinejad's High Re-election Chances
However, another reason to engage Iran right now is that President Ahmadinejad also has very high chances of getting a second mandate in June. Since his election in 2005, Ahmadinejad has proved a very able politician and a much more pragmatic and calculating figure than the “ultra-conservative hardliner” image that Western sensationalist media have used to describe him.
Despite some early mistakes – like the replacement of most veteran diplomats in foreign posts by people loyal to him – his foreign policy has been very successful and Iran is now in a better position internationally than 4 years ago. Iran has received the consensual support from the Non-Aligned Movement over its rights to civilian nuclear energy, has increased its influence in Latin America and Africa like never before, has been recognized as a leader of the Third World in its struggle for a stronger say on global issues and has gained the sympathy of a large part of the Muslim World in contrast with many pro-US authoritarian regimes reviled by their own population.
Explaining Ahmadinejad's Popularity
Admadinejad has created an image of himself as a tough negotiator, unwilling to compromise Iran's legitimate rights (especially on nuclear energy) and able to stand up for his country's dignity: all questions that are perceived as the reformist movement's weaknesses. On the other hand, the Iranian president has also tried to show that he could be reasonable and pragmatic when it was needed: skills that many religious conservatives are seen as lacking.
For example, Ahmadinejad's visit to Columbia University in New York, where he managed to stay cool in front of tough questioning, booing and plain insulting, was not a strategy to win points with the US public, since the corporate media had already made his image unredeemable by likening him to Hitler. It did however make him very sympathetic in the eyes Iranian, Muslim and Third World public opinion and was thus a huge public relations success.
Thus, despite the fact Ahmadinejad has not fulfilled his socio-economic promises on greater distribution of oil wealth, he still has very high popular support, in large part because he is seen has having given Iran its national pride back. The fact that Supreme Leader Khamenei seems to have given his tacit support to the current president has made his re-election an even closer to certain affair. Also, Ahmadinejad can always blame his broken promises on US hostility that has distracted him from addressing national issues.
Therefore, waiting for a new president before engaging Iran, like some US foreign policy experts have suggested, will prove highly counter-productive if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to stay at the helm of Iran. Washington and Tehran should thus begin to talk as soon as possible. More so than after 30 years of broken communications, there is a lot to talk about.
Ahmadinejad is still popular after four years
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